Starting Lineup: Bill Nelson's Numbers

Good Thursday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. Here's our take on the day's political news.

Better Than Expected: Florida Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson starts his 2012 reelection bid in solid shape, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

Nelson has a 45 percent job approval rating in the survey, while 21 percent disapprove. Those numbers are by no means stunning, but are credible given the tough statewide landscape for Democrats. Newly-elected Sen. Marco Rubio also has strong approval numbers: 42 percent said they approved of how Rubio is handling his early days on the job, while 20 percent said they didn't.

The Florida Democrat leads 41 to 36 percent. And 43 percent said he deserves reelection while 33 percent said he doesn't -- numbers that suggest he faces a competitive campaign ahead.

Nelson would undoubtedly like to be closer to 50 percent on any of those questions. But coming off a cycle where Republicans made significant gains at every level of the Florida government, he'll take the results. Nelson will be a top target for Republicans in 2012 and already several contenders are lining up to challenge him. State Senate Pres. Mike Haridopolos (R) is already in the race, while former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner (R), Rep. Connie Mack (R) and outgoing Sen. George LeMieux (R) are all seriously considering the contest.

To put those Nelson numbers in greater context, look at Pres. Obama's results in the poll. His approval rating is upside down -- 49 percent disapprove of his performance while 47 percent approve. Meanwhile, 42 percent said they would vote for a generic Republican against Obama in 2012, more than the 40 percent who said they'd back the president. And nearly half -- 48 percent -- said Obama does not deserve to be reelected.

Half of voters want to repeal the president's signature health care law, with only 43 percent wanting to maintain it.

That means that means that the Sunshine State is still looking like pretty Republican territory, but at this early point in the cycle Nelson has insulated himself to some degree.

Bachmann Goes Beyond Iowa: Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) continues to stoke the presidential speculation, planning a trip to South Carolina later this month.

The move is notable because it is the first time Bachmann has headed to an early presidential primary state besides Iowa, which neighbors her home state,was her birthplace and was where she funneled money during the 2010 campaign.

Bachmann's Palmetto State trip suggests that she is taking a potential run seriously and that she may see an avenue among social conservatives now that Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (R) has passed on the race. Without Pence, who won the Values Voter Summit straw poll last year, the playing field to the far right is somewhat open in the 2012 potential playing field. Especially if former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) doesn't run, former Pennsylvania Rep. Rick Santorum (R) would vie to occupy that ground, as would former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R). The state's junior senator, Jim DeMint (R), who's making his own trek to Iowa and could enter the mix, would also appeal to that faction.

We'll get a very good idea of whether all the presidential speculation has raised Bachmann's stock among conservatives next week in the CPAC straw poll.

Steelman Posts Strong Numbers: With the Missouri Republican Senate primary now officially underway with Republican Ed Martin joining former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the race earlier this week, their year end campaign finance reports provide some insight into how competitive the race will be. And in her first report, Steelman got the early edge.

Steelman raised a respectable $208,000 in only about a month and finished the year with $189,000 in her bank account. Steelman had a fundraising network already in place from her 2008 gubernatorial bid, but no leftover money from that race could be used in her Senate campaign. Martin, who raised well over $1 million in his run against Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) last year, hasn't gotten going yet -- reporting only $44,000 on hand. Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill brought in $136,000. McCaskill has a warchest that is significantly bigger than either Martin's or Steelman's -- she has $905,000 in her account. More FEC Fun: The last of the Senate FEC reports are now live and Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) also posted a decent year end report. He hauled in $187,000 in the fourth quarter and finished the year with $723,000. The big question for Whitehouse is who will challenge him, and WPRI reported Wednesday that former Gov. Donald Carcieri -- who would likely be the GOP's top contender -- is considering the the race. Don't Miss: The Hotline's handy chart of all the Senate fundraising numbers here. (Subscription required). The Starting Five 1. Looks like the Tea Party challenge to Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar (R) is forming as state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) is preparing to formally enter the race. 2. Speaking of the Tea Party, Bachmann, Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) will host the first Tea Party town hall next Tuesday. 3. Veteran political handicapper Stuart Rothenberg says former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a "frail" frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination. 4. Carolyn Goodman, the wife of Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman is running to succeed her husband this year. 5. In case you missed it, ESPN college football analyst Craig James is apparently considering a run for the open Texas Senate seat and, for some reason, thinks Lubbock would back him even though he was instrumental in getting Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach fired. Updated at 12:58 p.m. with Martin's fundraising numbers.

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