While Missouri has a Democratic governor, Jay Nixon, Republicans' stranglehold in the state legislature means they will only have to woo three Democratic state House members to have a veto-proof majority to pass a map. Their target will likely be Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan in St. Louis' suburbs. He narrowly won reelection last year in a Democratic-leaning district originally drawn to keep his predecessor, Rep. Dick Gephardt, from facing a tough race.
Republicans could argue they need some of the black precincts to keep Rep. William Lacy Clay's St. Louis district majority-black. The congressional delegation, which currently has six Republicans and three Democrats, will likely shed a Democrat this time around, although Republicans will have to be careful not to make Republican Rep. Todd Akin's district too marginal.
-- Utah grew at a fast pace in the last decade, adding about a quarter more people, and the state gained a congressional seat. The Hispanic population grew fast here as in other places, and Hispanics are now 13% of the overall population, up from 9% a decade ago. But the rest of the population grew fast as well. Republicans in control of redistricting will undoubtedly create at least one more Republican seat, but could also target Rep. Jim Matheson, whose district is already solidly Republican. They could move his district further away from Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City, giving him more conservative Mormon territory, and go for the clean sweep.
But Matheson was targeted in the last round of redistricting to no avail, and held on despite the district being the most Republican of any Democrat-held House seat. There is a chance Republicans will decide to make the district more Democratic and ensure the other three districts are heavily Republican.
-- Alabama's population grew by 7.5% and it kept its seven House seats. The state's ethnic mix didn't change much in the last decade - the Hispanic population doubled but is still less than 4% of the state's total, and African Americans still make up about a quarter of the state. A decade ago, Democrats controlled redistricting. This time, Republicans will draw the maps. The areas around Huntsville in the north and Birmingham in the center grew the fastest, while the western part of the state lost population.
Republicans may have to expand the seventh district, which is black-majority and the only Democratic-held district in the state, without lowering the percentage of African Americans in the district, a requirement of the Voting Rights Act. They could add more parts of Birmingham to do this, or could base the district in Montgomery, and spread it east and west across the state. The former is more likely, as a Birmingham-based district could be politically marginal, and they will want to shore up the 6-1 partisan advantage they gained in the last election.
-- Hawaii's population grew by 12% and it retained its two U.S. House seats. Oahu, which includes Honolulu, grew steadily, but the rest of the state added about as many people. The Hispanic tsunami in the rest of the country even made waves here: the Latino population grew by 38% and Hispanics are now almost 9% of the total population. The second-fastest growing segment of the population came from those who are of mixed-race background. This may be unsurprising, as the state is less than a quarter white, almost two fifths Asian and about 10% native Hawaiian.
For redistricting, Republicans won a House seat for the first time in 20 years in a special election last year, but former Rep. Charles Djou couldn't hold on during the general election months later. Still, Democrats, who control redistricting, may want to shore up freshman Rep. Colleen Hanabusa a bit. Although the island went heavily for Pres. Obama in the last election, in 2004 George W. Bush took 45% of the state vote and 48% of the vote in Honolulu.
Depending on where on the island the growth occurred, Hanabusa's district may need to grow a bit to gain population. As Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono looks solid in her district, the legislature may take some of the more Democratic parts of Honolulu currently in Hirono's district and shift them to Hanabusa's.