While Bowen and Hahn are seen as the two strongest candidates, the one who could play spoiler is progressive activist Marcy Winograd, who twice challenged Harman in the Democratic primary. Winograd has indicated she's unhappy with some of Hahn's more moderate positions, particularly on support for Israel, but has left the door open to supporting Bowen instead of running herself. A call to Winograd was not immediately returned.
"Winograd has seemed to imply that if Bowen entered the race, she'd probably defer, although I know that's some of her supporters have been trying to organize to get her to jump into the race, but I have not heard anything directly from her," said Bauman.
The seat leans heavily Democratic, but Republicans aren't ceding the seat. Former GOP Rep. Steve Kuykendall, who held the seat for one term in 1998 after Harman unsuccessfully ran for governor, is said to be looking at the race. In that race, Kuykendall narrowly beat Hahn, who was the Democratic nominee.