Another Empire State Showdown Looms

By Josh Kraushaar  //  February 17, 2011 | 10:06 a.m.
Updated: February 18, 2011 | 5:55 p.m.

Both parties may be downplaying their interest in competing for an upcoming House special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), but there are signs that another classic House race showdown may be coming soon to the Empire State.

Republicans are taking the race very seriously, even though the seat could be sliced up during the redistricting process. State senator Jane Corwin is emerging as the clear Republican favorite for the seat, both among New York state party insiders and Washington strategists.

Corwin brings notable assets to a race: She's only been in the legislature for two years, she has Conservative party support, and she has the ability to self-finance a race. Past Republican nominees in special elections have suffered from their insider status in an unpopular state legislature (Tedisco), and for being insufficiently conservative (Scozzafava). If Corwin is the nominee, she won't have those vulnerabilities.

Corwin has already assembled a well-regarded consulting team, with Dave Sackett expected to serve as her pollster and Michael Hook slated to be media consultant, according to GOP insiders.

Several other Republicans are interested in the race, including wealthy businessman Jack Davis, who switched parties after running against former GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds several times.

Democrats, despite their public downplaying of their interest, are unlikely to take this race for granted. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was highly successful last cycle in recruiting political outsiders, in winning two upstate New York seats that Republicans aggressively contested. With Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) now at the helm, it's unlikely he'll let an opportunity slip through - and the committee has frequently downplayed expectations, only to vigorously compete in these special elections. The DCCC has already dispatched Northeast regional political director Abby Curran to meet with prospective candidates, though Israel emphasized at his briefing yesterday that the final decisions are made at the local level. Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul has emerged as a serious Democratic contender, but don't be surprised if someone with the business/political outsider profile of a Rep. Bill Owens or former Rep. Scott Murphy emerges. -- Jessica Taylor contributed to this report.

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