What We Learned: State Of The Union Edition

January 30, 2011 | 11:27 a.m.
Updated: February 1, 2011 | 7:55 a.m.

Evolving wisdom from The Hotline staff:

-- While everyone loves an instant poll, surveys of viewers conducted after a presidential address tend to be skewed; supporters of the president are more likely to watch than those who don't support him. What are better, if smaller (and sometimes partisan), measures? Dial tests and focus groups. The GOP group Resurgent Republic reports that voters in their group had a "mostly positive view" of the speech, but Obama's "dial test approval tended to drop among independents when he proposed additional federal spending." And those independents tracked closely with Republicans during Rep. Paul Ryan's response.


-- Not everyone in Washington is afraid of the Tea Party, apparently. With the ever-present threat of a primary challenge, moderate Republicans typically seem to have two options when re-election season rolls around: Pivot to the right or announce your retirement. But Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) apparently has opted for Door No. 3: Provoke. Lugar spent the lame-duck session supporting measures that the Tea Party strongly opposed, like the New START Treaty and the DREAM Act. He further distanced himself from the movement by coming out in favor of an assault weapons ban in the wake of the tragedy in Tucson. This all led to last week's meeting of Indiana tea party leaders who intend to unite behind one candidate in the hopes of ousting Lugar. Never mind moving to the right, it sometimes seems like Lugar is looking for a fight with the Tea Party. If so, he's in luck -- he's almost certainly going to get one.

-- There's no one coming to save Orrin Hatch (R-UT) from tea party anger: Tea Party Express consultant Sal Russo's praise of Hatch was quickly countered by both a statement from Tea Party Express chair Amy Kremer, and one from the Club for Growth.

-- For candidates who lost the RNC chair race, the thing to do this week was consider a Senate run. In Michigan, former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis (R) announced that he was mulling a challenge to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). In Missouri, former state GOP chair Ann Wagner (R) announced her interest in a bid against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D). It wouldn't be unprecedented: as Anuzis pointed out, in 1994 Spence Abraham and >John Ashcroft both lost RNC chair bids and went on to become senators from, ironically enough, Michigan and Missouri.

-- If former Maine gubernatorial candidate Rosa Scarcelli (D) decides to enter the Maine Senate fray, it won't be without a little a baggage in tow. Her husband admitted involvement this week in an anonymous website that attacked Independent gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler. While Scarcelli -- who didn't make it out of the primary in 2010 -- appears to have played no role in the operation, it could come up in future campaigns. And if you don't think a pol's spouse can become an issue in Maine politics, just ask Gov. Paul LePage (R) if the property tax investigation surrounding his wife came up in reports once or twice in 2010. -- Not much has changed in Chicago. For decades, the city's political scene has served as a national stereotype for political scandal and drama. After the Rod Blagojevich saga, many Chicagoans hoped they could finally put the days of political soap opera behind them. But this week's back and forth over Rahm Emanuel's eligibility for the Chicago mayoral race proved the city hasn't lost its fastball in the drama department. With less than a month left before the Feb. 22 primary, political junkies should stay tuned. In Chicago, you never know when the next bombshell will drop. -- Tuesday night's speech was President Obama's least watched State of the Union address. The speech was viewed by more than 42 million people across 11 cable and broadcast networks. But compared to last year's speech, ratings were down 11% and 18% from 2009 address. To be fair, Tuesday's speech was up 14% in viewers compared to Pres. George W. Bush's final State of the Union address in 2008. -- The big three cable news stations each took a different approach to handling Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) State of the Union response. CNN opted to broadcast it live; Fox News rolled tape of it later after airing commentary about Pres. Obama's address and Rep. Paul Ryan's (R) official GOP response; and MSNBC did not show it at all. CNN took the most criticism for its decision, as the right and left both accused the network of elevating Bachmann's speech to the same level as those by Obama and Ryan. It goes to show that what is news often depends on who is asked.

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Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief
Steve Shepard, Executive Editor
Julie Sobel, Editor
Kevin Brennan, Deputy Editor


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