Lame Duck Sets Table For 2012 Senate Races
As attention turns to the 112th Congress -- and the 2012 cycle -- the political ramifications of the sprint to close the 111th Congress are becoming clear. Several members of the 111th Congress may find themselves in competitive Senate races in 2012 and an analysis of their voting decisions during the lame duck session offers a few clues about what is in store for some of 2012's marquee contests.
The debate over Pres. Obama's compromise on the extension of the Bush tax cuts, a central focus of the session, shed some light on the 2012 Nevada Senate race. Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) is one of the few Senate Republicans up for re-election in 2012 thought to be vulnerable, and he may find himself being challenged by formidable opponents from both parties.
Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley (D), a possible Ensign challenger, was an ardent and vocal supporter of the tax cut compromise, splitting with many of her colleagues in the Democratic caucus. While Berkley denied that a possible Senate run was part of her calculus, her decision to stake out ground in the middle cannot be ignored, especially considering her liberal voting record. Making inroads with moderates would be necessity for Berkley in a statewide contest and while it is too early to say what her political future holds, her votes early in the 112th Congress are certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Meanwhile, Ensign voted against the tax cut compromise while Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), who may challenge Ensign in the Republican primary, supported the measure. The divergence may emerge point of contention, should the two find themselves in a primary battle.
Earmarks may also become an issue in a potential primary. While both Ensign and Heller opposed the now defunct omnibus spending bill, Ensign's request of $85 million in earmarks contrasts with Heller, who requested none.
While Ensign's decision to position himself alongside some of the most conservative members of the Senate in voting against the tax cut compromise may boost his conservative credentials, his pursuit of earmarks may provide an opening for Heller to attack in a potential primary. At the same time, Heller could be criticized for not pursuing money for the state.
The tax cuts also proved to be a divisive issue in Utah. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) may see a primary challenge of his own from Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT), and the two parted ways on the issue, with Hatch supporting the compromise and Chaffetz opposing the measure.
Moving East, two senators also viewed as potentially vulnerable in 2012 made some key moves that will likely help their chances in 2012. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) helped shepherd a repeal of "Don't Ask Don't Tell" through the Senate, even after the measure's prospects once appeared faint. Lieberman, who has angered voters on the left in the past, has likely upped his credibility with some Democrats following the victory of the DADT repeal -- which would no doubt help him in a bid, whether he decides to run as a Democrat or independent.
Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown's (R) eventual support of the DADT repeal gave the measure timely momentum and also gave Brown a boost. Pair that with his support of the New START treaty that also passed the Senate after much debate, and Brown has proven himself to be someone who, at times, the Obama administration can work with.
Brown, along with Ensign, is widely considered to be a top target for Democrats in 2012, and his support for DADT and New START reveals a keen awareness of the balance a statewide Republican candidate must strike in Massachusetts.
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