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The Never Regions The Never Regions The Never Regions The Never Regions

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Politics

The Never Regions

November 29, 2010

Now that all but one House race has been called, we have an excellent view of the damage that the GOP wave inflicted on Election Night. Some thoughts:

* We knew the West was a huge disappointment for the GOP, but after looking at the numbers, it was the biggest letdown of the cycle for the House GOP. The party picked up just two seats in the region -- just 3 percent of its total pickups. In contrast, in 1994, the region accounted for 20 percent of the GOP's pickups.

* Interestingly, the wave peaked in the Eastern time zone (where the GOP picked up over half its gains), and got smaller as it rolled West. A lack of Hispanic support appears to have cost the GOP seats out here, particularly in California's 20th District.

* Compared to 1994, the GOP's successes this year were much more broad-based (its lack of support in the West notwithstanding). Then, the party counted on huge gains in Washington and the South to help it win its majority. This year, the party relied just a bit less on the South, and saw bigger gains in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Mountain states. While that may bring bragging rights, it will definitely make defending these seats much harder in 2012. It's going to cost the National Republican Congressional Committee big bucks to defend those six new seats in New York, as well as those nine seats in Pennsylvania and Illinois -- states that went strongly for Pres. Obama in 2008.

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