Skip Navigation

Close and don't show again.

Your browser is out of date.

You may not get the full experience here on National Journal.

Please upgrade your browser to any of the following supported browsers:

All Politics Is National All Politics Is National

NEXT :
This ad will end in seconds
Close X

Not a member or subscriber? Learn More »

Forget Your Password?

Don't have an account? Register »

Reveal Navigation

 

All Politics Is National

Polling guru Nate Silver reinforced this point on Monday, suggesting that a lot of the statewide public polling is tailored to 2006 and 2008 turnout patterns - which would skew the number in favor of Democrats significantly. "It's also conceivable that some likely voter models based on past voting histories are overrating the propensity of Democrats to vote," Silver wrote. "If likely voter models are benchmarked to 2006 and 2008 patterns, therefore, they could underestimate the turnout gap, giving too much credit to Democrats who voted in 2006 or 2008 but who don't ordinarily." Silver now predicts that Democrats lose 53 seats in the House. So who are the Democrats who could be vulnerable if the GOP wave gathers full steam on Tuesday? The Cook Political Report on Monday put four more incumbent Democrats -- most of whom weren't considered vulnerable until very recently -- into its Toss Up column: Reps. Chellie Pingree (Maine), Mike McIntyre (N.C), Jim Oberstar (Minn.) and Rich Boucher (Va.). The Report also moved Rep. Mike Michaud (D-Maine) from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Other possible seats that could be vulnerable to a big wave include the open Rhode Island seat vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) as well Reps. Solomon Ortiz (D-Texas), Bob Etheridge (N.C.), Maurice Hincey (N.Y.), David Loebsack (Iowa) and Bruce Braley (Iowa). Even Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is facing a difficult challenge and is under 50 percent in recent polling.

Don't Miss Today's Top Stories

Excellent!"

Rick, Executive Director for Policy

Concise coverage of everything I wish I had hours to read about."

Chuck, Graduate Student

The day's action in one quick read."

Stacy, Director of Communications

I find them informative and appreciate the daily news updates and enjoy the humor as well."

Richard, VP of Government Affairs

Chock full of usable information on today's issues. "

Michael, Executive Director

Sign up form for the newsletter
MORE NATIONAL JOURNAL