Five House Races To Watch On Election Night

By David N. Wasserman, The Cook Political Report  //  October 27, 2010 | 1:42 p.m.
Updated: October 29, 2010 | 11:56 a.m.

With less than a week to go, there are more than 100 Democratic House seats at risk. But which seats will tell us early on Election Night just how much devastation there could be? Here's a helpful five-point scale to measure the storm, hurricane, tsunami, (insert natural disaster here) hurtling straight toward Democrats before the major networks call the House.

In Indiana and Kentucky, the first two states to report in results, there are five Democratic seats worth watching. From highest to lowest likelihood of switching to the GOP, they are the seats of Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) (who is running for the Senate), Baron Hill (Ind.), Ben Chandler (Ky.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), and John Yarmuth (Ky.).

Democrats privately acknowledge that GOP surgeon Larry Bucshon will win Ellsworth's Evansville-based "Bloody Eighth," which has switched parties eight times in the last 50 years but has voted for the winning party in the House each election since 1982. Democrats still hold out some hope that Hill will survive in the neighboring seat to the east, but at this point GOP attorney Todd Young is probably a slight favorite to defeat him.

The real bellwethers are the brawls in Chandler's 6th District of Kentucky and Donnelly's 2nd District of Indiana. Both Chandler and Donnelly have distanced themselves from Congress and their leadership to survive in hostile territory, and Democrats are still spending heavily to paint Chandler's foe Andy Barr (R) as a spoiled and corrupt lawyer and Donnelly's rival Jackie Walorski (R) as a wacky and extreme politician. Both races are toss ups.


If Republicans win either or both of Chandler and Donnelly's seats, they are almost assuredly on their way to taking control of the House. Even if they do not carry either, but win the Ellsworth and Hill seats, they could still be on a trajectory for a net gain in the mid-40s. If Rep. John Yarmuth falls to Tea Party-backed GOP nominee Todd Lally in Democratic-leaning Louisville, however, then all bets are off and Republicans could be on their way to picking up in excess of 60 seats. The situation in the House is much more fluid than it is in the Senate, so thank Indiana and Kentucky for giving us a neat early measuring stick when polls close on Tuesday.

Read & Post Comments
Leave A Comment
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus
Follow National Journal
About

Staff


Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief
Steve Shepard, Executive Editor
Julie Sobel, Editor
Kevin Brennan, Deputy Editor


Disclaimer


On Call editors reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments. The Hotline, National Journal Group, Inc. and Atlantic Media Company are not responsible for the content of the comments that remain.