2012 Decoded

Campaign analysis by the most interesting thinkers in Washington

Newsweek: The Whiff Factor

By Michael Hirsh // August 20, 2012 | 6:05 p.m.

Once upon a time Newsweek magazine had, arguably, the best political coverage in the business (full disclosure: I'm a former staffer). Stocked with star reporters, columnists and writers, it blanketed the presidential races, often set the tone for other journalists and produced a closely read election book every four years. So when Newsweek turned out a cover like "Fighting the 'Wimp Factor'" in 1987, raising questions about whether George H.W. Bush was tough enough to be president, stuff happened: pundits went into overdrive, campaign flunkies got angry, and the magazine had impact. But when Newsweek tried to do a "Wimp Factor" cover again a few weeks ago -- this time about Mitt Romney -- no one seemed to care very much.

Don't Forget: McCaskill Wanted to Face Akin

By Shane Goldmacher // August 20, 2012 | 3:12 p.m.

Lost amid the exploding controversy over Missouri Republican Rep. Todd Akin's claims about "legitimate rape" is one of the reasons that Akin is the Republican Senate standard-bearer in the first place (at least for the moment).

Sen. Claire McCaskill and the Democrats wanted him as her opponent.

In the weeks before the August 7 primary, McCaskill and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee aired ads that ostensibly attacked Akin, but actually boosted his candidacy. The ads called said him a "true conservative" and questioned if he was "too conservative," hardly a negative in a GOP primary. One radio ad ended by noting that Akin "has been endorsed by the most conservative leaders in our country: Michele Bachmann and Mike Huckabee."

McCaskill did air ads against all the Republicans in the race, but only the Akin ones included such glowing testimonials. With a wink and a nod, Democrats placed their bets that the conservative congressman would be her weakest foe in the fall, even if they're never publicly acknowledged it.

"The suggestion that McCaskill would prefer to run against Akin would be a very unwise choice on her part," Akin spokesman Ryan Hite told the Washington Post, shortly before the primary.

But so far, the Democratic meddling in the GOP primary is looking like a very smart investment. "Of the three [GOP primary] candidates, at least so far, he has shown himself to be out of the mainstream at least on a whole host of issues," Guy Cecil, executive director of the DSCC, said in an interview Wednesday.

The only problem facing McCaskill and the Democrats now is that Akin may have made his biggest stumble early enough for the GOP establishment to twist his arm right out of the race. He can still withdraw before 5 p.m. on Tuesday.

John Cornyn of Texas, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, essentially gave Akin a 24-hour ultimatum to get out of the race. "Over the next twenty-four hours, Congressman Akin should carefully consider what is best for him, his family, the Republican Party, and the values that he cares about," he said.

Cornyn called Akin's comments "wrong, offensive, and indefensible."

Adding to the pressure, Crossroads GPS, the Karl Rove-backed group that has already invested millions to unseat McCaskill, has also pulled up stakes in the state following Akin's comments.

Meanwhile, John Brunner, the businessman that finished second behind Akin in the primary, has reportedly been making calls about how he could get back into the race.

McCaskill, as it turns out, may not get the opponent she wanted after all.

Is Todd Akin Toast In Missouri?

By Josh Kraushaar // August 19, 2012 | 6:17 p.m.

There's been much heated commentary over Missouri Rep. Todd Akin, the GOP's Senate nominee, and his comments on a Missouri television station saying "legitimate rape" rarely resulted in pregnancy. He quickly released a statement clarifying his remarks, but not apologizing for them.

The GOP Counter-Argument On Medicare

By Josh Kraushaar // August 17, 2012 | 2:07 p.m.

By picking Paul Ryan as his running mate, Mitt Romney is betting that the electorate's view of entitlements has changed in their favor this year. His campaign has been making the case that by having a conversation about Medicare, it allows them to bring President Obama's unpopular health care law into the equation as well.

There's reason to take that argument seriously, strictly on the political merits. Obama's first campaign ad on Medicare hardly features the red-meat rhetoric against Romney-Ryan many expected. It spends as much time clarifying the Medicare provisions in Obama's health care law as attacking the Ryan plan, relying on the AARP to be a crucial validator in its message.

Adding credence to the GOP's case: Polls conducted in 28 battleground districts for the National Republican Congressional Committee, obtained by National Journal, which suggest Republicans aren't as vulnerable on the Medicare debate as the conventional wisdom suggests. Their pollsters tested both the Republican message on Ryan's plan (Ryan's plan doesn't touch anyone over 55, preserves Medicare for future generations, invokes ObamaCare), and the Democratic message against it (end Medicare as we know it through voucher system, seniors pay more out of pocket, rates will go up). When the results of all 28 polls were aggregated together, the GOP argument prevailed 46 to 36 percent.

Another counterintuitive finding from the polls showed that there was little correlation between the most senior-heavy districts and their response to the Medicare arguments.

For example, in the Michigan district where the DCCC is airing its first Medicare-themed attack against GOP Rep. Dan Benishek, the GOP argument prevailed 48 to 37 percent -- exactly by the same margin as the average of the 28 battleground districts. The district is a critical bellwether on the issue. It elected Benishek, a tea party-aligned congressman constituent angst over Obama's health care law. But it backed Obama for president in 2008, and contains the highest percentage of seniors in the state. The Michigan poll was conducted by the Republican polling firm The Tarrance Group, and surveyed 400 likely voters between April 10-11.

Running Mates Gone Wild

By Tim Alberta // August 16, 2012 | 7:45 p.m.

The conventional wisdom that has long dictated vice presidential politicking can be boiled down to a pair of hard and fast rules. Number One: do no harm. Number Two: never allow the bottom of the ticket to overshadow the top of the ticket.

For Romney, China Attack Worth Backlash

By Alex Roarty // August 16, 2012 | 6:12 p.m.

Mitt Romney's unwavering attempts to hammer China's unfair trade practices - and the White House's inability to corral those practices - was complicated Thursday when reports surfaced that his newly anointed running mate had voted against just such a provision in Congress two years earlier.

Making matters worse, the revelation came the same day Paul Ryan delivered a fiery speech attacking President Obama's pliancy toward the Far East country - a faux pas Chicago didn't let slide.

Paul Ryan, speaking in industrial-heavy Ohio, said China must "play by the rules."

"They steal our intellectual-property rights," he said. "They block access to their markets. They manipulate their currency."

Voter ID Ruling Could Put Pennsylvania in Play

By James Oliphant // August 15, 2012 | 2:56 p.m.

Has a Pennsylvania court done what the Romney campaign has been unable to: Erase President Obama's advantage in the state?

Campaign 2012 On Track to Tarnish Four Reputations

By Jill Lawrence // August 15, 2012 | 1:29 p.m.

Joe Biden and Paul Ryan were the Capitol Hill veterans known for friendly relations - sometimes even working relations - across the aisle. Mitt Romney was the competent pragmatist who turned around the 2002 Olympics and enacted health coverage for almost everyone in Massachusetts. Barack Obama was the youthful symbol of hope and change.

Where are these people and will we ever see them again?

The latest exchange of Campaign 2012 - Romney calling Obama a desperate, angry candidate running a reckless, hate-filled campaign, and Obama's team responding by calling Romney "unhinged" - was the most ferocious so far. This is not a campaign destined to enhance reputations. The only question is how much wreckage it leaves behind.

Future Not Guaranteed to Convention Speakers

By George E. Condon Jr. // August 14, 2012 | 6:00 p.m.

In politics, nothing says you're the future more than getting a coveted prime time speaking slot at a national convention. Except when it doesn't. Keep that in mind as the two parties fill those slots for the upcoming conventions in Tampa and Charlotte. It can get pretty confusing.

Ryan the Dealmaker vs. Ryan the Ideologue

By Shane Goldmacher // August 14, 2012 | 12:12 p.m.

Ever since Mitt Romney named Rep. Paul Ryan as his vice presidential pick, he's been touting the Wisconsin Republican's bipartisan credentials. "This guy's a real leader," Romney said in their joint 60 Minutes appearance. "He's reached across the aisle. He's worked with Democrats, Republicans. Tried to take on the toughest issues America faces."

Would Vice-President Elect Ryan Stay for the Lame Duck?

By Matthew Cooper // August 14, 2012 | 10:21 a.m.

Should Mitt Romney win, would Vice President Elect Paul Ryan remain in the House until inauguration day? It's a cart-before-the-House question but an intriguing one.

Ryan and Thompson, Two Conservative Paths

By Josh Kraushaar // August 14, 2012 | 7:50 a.m.

It's been virtually ignored in the wake of Paul Ryan's ascension to the presidential ticket, but Wisconsin's Senate primary is today -- and the trajectory of the race speaks to how much the Republican electorate has evolved.

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson is on the ballot, something of a political godfather to Republicans like Ryan. A leader in advancing the conservative causes like welfare reform and school choice as governor in the 1990s, he was--like Ryan today--a leading vice-presidential contender in the 1996 and 2000 elections.

But Thompson's stock has fallen markedly since his heyday. He worked as a lobbyist after leaving the Bush administration where he served as HHS Secretary, and came out for elements of President Obama's health care proposal. To some conservative activists, he exemplifies what's wrong with politicians, making good money after a distinguished career but compromising principles in the process.

So despite his impressive record and resume, Thompson will be lucky to crack 30 percent of the vote. If he wins, it will be because his three challengers closely split the conservative electorate. Ryan has stayed out of the primary, despite his past loyalty to Thompson.

Since 2010, Republican primary voters have shown they're drawn to principled conservative candidates who have kept their distance from Washington. They feel like they've found an ally in Ryan, who was a lonely advocate for entitlement reform before it became a Republican cause célèbre, and who trekked back home to Wisconsin most weekends, sleeping in his office during the week rather than renting a place in Washington.

The Right Completes Its Hostile Takeover of Romney

By Michael Hirsh // August 13, 2012 | 11:13 a.m.

Romney-Ryan constitutes, very possibly, the best-looking ticket in American political history. Mitt Romney is so textbook handsome that he resembles a toy action-figure president. Paul Ryan's youthful, chiseled face and piercing blue eyes are already making hearts flutter around the political world. And no doubt Romney's bold choice for veep - which has made most people forget, for the moment, Bain Capital and his undisclosed tax returns-- will give the Republican presumptive nominee some pop in the polls. For the moment.

But once the excitement surrounding Ryan subsides, the long, ideological slog of this presidential race will resume, and with greater force than before. The stakes will be, once again, about the stark conceptual choice that American voters now face. Romney's selection of Ryan must be seen as part of a continuum of hard-line positions that the GOP candidate, under constant pressure from an often hostile right, has laid out on everything from immigration to health care to foreign policy.

And with his veep choice Romney is sending a message to the American electorate, more forthrightly than ever, that he won't be moving to the middle after all. He seems to be affirming that he is just about as ideologically conservative and as captured by the GOP base as Obama has been painting him.

Romney, Finding His Inner Christie

By Josh Kraushaar // August 13, 2012 | 6:53 a.m.

Watching Mitt Romney on the campaign trail this weekend

Where Are The Jobs?

By Jill Lawrence // August 12, 2012 | 10:09 a.m.

Mitt Romney has changed the subject on two fronts with his interesting choice of running mate. At least for the moment people are talking about the soon-to-be Republican nominee's boldness instead of his taxes or Bain Capital career. And he has certainly ensured that government spending will be front and center in the presidential campaign.

But, as House Speaker John Boehner often has asked, where are the jobs?

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