2012 Decoded

The three NBC/Marist Institute swing state polls released Thursday reconfirm the picture painted by the Quinnipiac University polls unveiled Wednesday in three other swing states: the presidential race stands on a knife's edge, with both President Obama and Mitt Romney facing substantial vulnerabilities with undecided voters. But in Michigan, the only must-win for the president in the three states NBC and Marist polled, the president looks to be in a stronger position than Romney with the undecided voters who could tip the result.

The NBC/Marist Polls showed Obama holding only a narrow advantage over Romney in Michigan (47 percent to 43 percent) and North Carolina (46 to 44 percent) while the two men are running dead even in New Hampshire (45 percent to 45 percent). Of those three, Michigan is by far the most important for Obama, though New Hampshire could be an important step on his path toward 270 Electoral College votes depending on how other states fall.