2012 Decoded

Democracy Corps, the Democratic consulting firm that raised alarm bells about Obama's economic messaging earlier this month, is finding that the attacks on Mitt Romney's business record are working, after all.

The firm's latest survey shows Obama leading Romney, 49 to 46 percent, with Romney's favorability ratings growing increasingly negative over the last month.   Obama's job approval is at 47 percent, with 48 percent disapproving.  Romney, meanwhile, holds a net unfavorable rating.  Obama trailed Romney by seven points in the last survey on who was better equipped to handle the economy; now the two are statistically tied (Romney 45, Obama 44)..

"Romney is dragged down not only by his own negative image, but also by voters' contempt for the Republican Party and the Republican Congress," the firm's memo reads. "Obama's gains come partially from gains on whom voters trust to handle the economy." 

Democracy Corps writes that Obama's gains have "come disproportionately in the battleground states," where the president's advertising spending has been concentrated lately.  "The shifts there may reflect the sharp attacks on Romney's record and better than average economic performance in key states," the memo reads.

It's a somewhat different message than what the firm was arguing last month, when it wrote that Obama could "face an impossible headwind in November if we do not move to a new narrative, one that contextualizes the recovery "

Obama's gains, notably have come from what the pollsters label the "Rising American Electorate - young voters, unmarried women, African-Americans and Latinos.  Obama's vote share increased three points from 60 to 63 percent in the past month, and gained 7 points with African-American voters (from 88 percent to 95 percent).  Obama now leads slightly among independents, 46 to 44 percent.