Swing States Back at Tipping Point

By Ronald Brownstein // May 7, 2012 | 3:18 p.m.

The latest Gallup/USA Today swing state poll released Monday underscores how narrow a margin for error President Obama possesses in the 2012 campaign.

When this poll last surveyed 12 swing states in March, Obama held a comfortable 51 percent to 42 percent advantage over Mitt Romney, then slogging toward the conclusion of the GOP nominating contest. With Romney now established as the inevitable GOP nominee, the new survey shows Obama clinging to a 47 percent to 45 percent edge that is within the poll's margin of error.

What's especially telling is that, according to detailed results provided by Gallup, Obama since March has suffered severe erosion only with one group-a familiar nemesis, non-college white men. But a slight shift in attitudes among other key groups was enough to place these states back on the tipping point.