2012 Decoded

People can disagree on policy, but let's face it, Barack Obama is the guy we want to have a beer with. The president is clearly crazy about his two kids, and he relates at eye level with other parents. (No video for Sasha and Malia on school nights!) He wrote movingly about his no-frills upbringing in a single-parent household, and he often talks about his and Michelle Obama's struggle to pay off their student loans. His favorite splurge food is the gooey, third-of-a-pound special from Ray's Hell Burger.

But being a regular guy doesn't win elections in an economy as stubbornly resistant to recovery as this one seems to be. Or does it?

Polls this week show that Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney in a dead heat in the contest for president, and the common assumption is that the tie-breaker will be the candidate who ultimately convinces the public he is the more capable steward of the economy. But there is another bit of survey data that confounds the simplicity of the political expectations of 2012.