2012 Decoded

He was born there. He grew up there. His siblings still live there. His father was governor. He won the state four years ago. His campaign infrastructure from 2008 was resurrected and revamped. His name recognition is high there. He's long been considered the frontrunner, both nationally and in the state. His campaign vastly outspent his competitors there. He had endorsements from the current governor and most of the congressional delegation. And his childhood hero was Al Kaline.

So why are we surprised that Mitt Romney won Michigan?

I'm not sure. But here's a theory: In attempting to bring clarity to a historically chaotic nominating process, there is a temptation to base our expectations on the day-to-day agitations of polling, headlines and cable news rather than trusting what we know in our head and what we feel in our gut. We find ourselves all too often missing the forest for the trees -- possibly because they're just the right height.