Campaign analysis by the most interesting thinkers in Washington

The High Stakes for Republicans in New Hampshire

Jan. 9th, 2012 - Nashua Newhampshire - Jon Huntsman, presidential hopeful visits a local bakery in Nashua, New Hampshire. (Liz Lynch)

The suspense is killing us. Seriously.

Sure, Mitt Romney is a near-certain bet to win the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. But the size of his margin will be an important measure of his survival skills in the face a bombardment that promises to continue into South Carolina, the next battleground.

The stakes for the other Republican presidential hopefuls are, if anything, even higher. One or two could burst out of the state with new energy. The rest will stagger into South Carolina for what likely will be a last stand. But the polling of New Hampshire is tight enough that's hard to predict who will be in each category.

The first-in-the-nation primary comes against a backdrop of GOP malaise. A new CBS News poll shows nearly six in 10 Republicans want another candidate to join the field. That's not exactly a ringing vote of confidence for the White House wannabes who have been eating and sleeping on the road for months. Even worse, that number has actually gone up 12 points since October -- suggesting that familiarity is not breeding content.

Assuming no sudden reversals by Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie or Mitch Daniels, this is it. With Rick Perry waiting for the race to move to South Carolina, here are the stakes for the five-man New Hampshire field:


Leave A Comment
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus
Follow National Journal
Decoded Contributors
Tim Alberta

Tim Alberta

Editor, Hotline Last Call!

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Caren Bohan

Caren Bohan

Managing Editor for Domestic Policy

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Ronald Brownstein

Ronald Brownstein

Editorial Director

Decoded Posts | All Stories


George E. Condon Jr.

George E. Condon Jr.

Staff Writer, White House

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Matthew Cooper

Matthew Cooper

Editor, National Journal Daily

Decoded Posts | All Stories


John Aloysius Farrell

John Aloysius Farrell

Congressional Correspondent

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Ron Fournier

Ron Fournier

Editor-in-Chief

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Chris Frates

Chris Frates

Lobbying Correspondent

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Major Garrett

Major Garrett

Congress Correspondent

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Shane Goldmacher

Shane Goldmacher

Congressional Correspondent

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Michael Hirsh

Michael Hirsh

Chief Correspondent

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Jackie Koszczuk

Jackie Koszczuk

Editor, The Almanac of American Politics

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Josh Kraushaar

Josh Kraushaar

Executive Editor, The Hotline

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Jill Lawrence

Jill Lawrence

Managing Editor, Politics

Decoded Posts | All Stories


James Oliphant

James Oliphant

Deputy Magazine Editor

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Beth Reinhard

Beth Reinhard

Political Correspondent

Decoded Posts | All Storie


Alex Roarty

Alex Roarty

Staff Writer, Politics

Decoded posts | All Stories


Lori Santos

Lori Santos

Managing Editor, Breaking News

Decoded posts | All Stories


Jim Tankersley

Jim Tankersley

Economics Correspondent

Decoded Posts | All Stories


Reid Wilson

Reid Wilson

Editor-In-Chief, The Hotline

Decoded Posts | All Stories