Also In This Issue Related stories are available to subscribers only: Graphic: McCain's Senate Voting Record Related Resources On NationalJournal.com NationalJournal.com: "Republicans: Party Rules And Regulars Propel McCain" (2/6/08) · On The Trail: "McCain's Rise Is Democrats' Opportunity" (2/6/08) · Off To The Races: "Vote On The Wild Side" (2/5/08) · National Journal On Air: Interview With John McCain (2/1/08) · National Journal Cover Story: "Battlefield Now" (2/1/08) · PolitiScope: "The Double-Edged Sword" (1/31/08) · National Journal: "McCain Walking On Sunshine" (1/30/08) · Insider Interview: Q&A With John McCain (12/13/07) · Ad Spotlight: McCain Ad Archive · Well-Read Wonk: Review Of McCain's Hard Call [an error occurred while processing this directive] Additional Resources On The Web John McCain's Official Web site · Federal Election Commission: McCain's Contributions By State · Federal Election Commission: McCain's Receipts And Disbursements

By Kirk Victor, National Journal
© National Journal Group Inc.
Friday, Feb. 8, 2008

Less than a year after losing his bitter battle with George W. Bush for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination, John McCain claimed that he had finally gotten his infamous hair-trigger temper under control. In a lengthy interview with National Journal, the senator from Arizona quietly declared that he no longer allowed himself to let loose with the withering, in-your-face invective that, more than once, he had targeted toward his Senate colleagues.

"I haven't changed a lot in my time in Congress," McCain said, "but one thing I have learned, at some cost, is, do not get personal. Obviously, I've failed from time to time, but I ... don't think you could find anybody, since I returned from the presidential campaign, that will tell you that I had a temper tantrum or an outburst. Because I just don't do it. It's nonproductive, and it's harmful to the furtherance of your causes."

McCain was just as adamant that the charges voiced in some GOP circles that he was less than a bona fide conservative were bunk. At that time, many conservatives were apoplectic -- as they still are -- because McCain had led the charge, often in unison with Democrats, for what they loathed as "liberal legislation," including campaign finance restrictions.

Reaching across the aisle was simply a pragmatic effort to move legislation, not a sign that he had jettisoned his core conservative values, McCain insisted. "In the interest of straight talk, am I the same legislator I was in 1983 when I first came [to the House]? I hope not," he said. "I hope that I have become a person of greater understanding and knowledge. But are my fundamental, core philosophical beliefs the same? I believe so."

Yet almost seven years after that interview, and on the heels of an impressive wave of victories on Tsunami Tuesday that made him the undeniable front-runner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, McCain is still fighting to make the sale that his put-up-your-dukes demeanor is a thing of the past and that his party's conservative base can trust him.

Despite his 2001 claim of cool-headedness, McCain's penchant for pugnacity still gets the best of him on occasion. And what his critics on the right see as ideological capriciousness has never waned. They point to his opposition to President Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and to his work with Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., on immigration legislation, with Sen. Joe Lieberman, ID-Conn., on global-warming legislation, and with the Senate's bipartisan "Gang of 14" on judicial nominations.

That McCain has yet to establish a good rapport with conservatives is reflected in the fact that despite his impressive showing in the 21 states that held GOP contests on February 5, he attracted the support of only 32 percent of self-described "conservatives." He received just 19 percent of the votes of those calling themselves "very conservative."

"Senator McCain is actually quite conservative on many issues, but he has the reputation -- I don't know whether it is well deserved or not -- among conservative Christians as being unreliable, as not being consistent in his political philosophy," said John Green, a political scientist and a senior fellow with the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.

Indeed, McCain's voting record, as tracked by National Journal's annual ratings, has shifted markedly from the right to the center of the Senate. In 1994, eight years after he was first elected to the Senate, he was to the right of such stalwart conservatives as Strom Thurmond, R-S.C., and Phil Gramm, R-Texas, but a decade later he was more liberal than all but two of his GOP colleagues.

"I just don't feel he has the disposition to be president, plus I disagree with him on a whole raft of issues," conservative activist Paul Weyrich recently told National Journal. "I talked to a couple that had gone to see him from Arizona, and they said something, apparently, that he didn't like, and he just blew up at them. And they actually got frightened.... It troubles me."

Weyrich added, "I've heard from people all around the country that they are reluctant to get behind him."

Likewise, David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, says of McCain, "I think that he is going to have a very tough road to put together the united base he is going to need to wage an effective campaign in the fall."

But Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., one of McCain's staunchest allies, said that Arizona's senior senator is already proving that he can pull together a broad range of supporters. Graham pointed to endorsements by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, on the left end of the GOP spectrum, and Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, on the right. "You've got Rudy Giuliani and Tom Coburn. What's in the middle? Everything."

"The choices between the agendas of the Democrats and the John McCain agenda are stark and obvious," Graham said. "Anyone who believes in conservative judges, who believes in winning in Iraq and fiscal discipline and lower taxes will enthusiastically support John McCain."

Stephen Hess, a senior fellow emeritus at the Brookings Institution, agrees that the raw emotions, even among McCain's most virulent critics, will largely dissipate once the general election campaign commences. "Particularly if the opposition candidate is Hillary Clinton, this becomes loose talk, it becomes locker room talk," he said. "It's a chance to let off some steam now."

Echoing that theme, Gary Bauer, a Religious Right leader who sought the GOP presidential nomination in 2000, said, "What Republicans, whether they are on Capitol Hill or at the grassroots, fear most of all is not John McCain's temper, but the prospect of a Hillary [Clinton] or [Barack] Obama presidency." He added, "I believe it is essential for Senator McCain to reach out to conservatives in and out of government. If he does, he will end up leading a surprisingly united Republican Party."

That Party's Ending?
Even as Bauer and Graham talked up the prospects of a united party, a stunning indictment of McCain's temperament burst into the news on January 27 from an unexpected source. The damning words came courtesy not of some rabble-rouser or radio talk-show host, but from an affable, low-key Southerner -- Republican Thad Cochran of Mississippi, a 30-year veteran of the Senate.

In language that has reverberated across Capitol Hill, Cochran, the ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, told The Boston Globe: "The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper, and he worries me."

Cochran's views are not isolated, Keene suggested. Clearly, it will take more than a single speech, such as the one McCain delivered at the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 7, to win over the doubters on the right. "He doesn't just have to reassure people on issues," said Keene, who supports former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for president. "He has to go further than that and convince them that he is not what Thad Cochran fears."

When pressed on whether he would support McCain if the senator nails down the nomination, Keene said, "I am torn, because I have always taken the position that if you enter the game you have to abide by the results. On the other hand, I cannot see myself out knocking on doors for this guy, you know what I mean. I think I will have to be AWOL during that campaign."

Yet some people whom McCain has torn into over the years now count themselves among his most steadfast supporters. They insist that his temper is not as big a problem as his critics say -- and that he is quick to make up, move on, and work constructively with people he has blasted. These former targets invariably tell critics that McCain is a hero who suffered through five brutal years as a prisoner of war, that he is an unwavering advocate of a strong national defense, this his advocacy paved the way for the military surge in Iraq, and that he has consistently opposed abortion rights.

Ironically, Cochran's longtime Mississippi colleague, former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, who has had fierce battles with McCain over the years, has been stumping for him throughout the South. "We have had our spats," Lott admitted in an interview. "I don't like vulgarity. I actually asked him to leave my office over that, but he came back and apologized, and I said, 'Fine, sit down,' and we went back to work."

Lott praised McCain's willingness to battle for principle. "I want a man who will take a courageous position and ... stand and fight for it, and take on all comers, friend and foe alike. And there ain't nobody who can deny he will do that."

Lott, who retired from the Senate in December, said that McCain had called to ask about Cochran's comments. Lott reassured him and chalked up Cochran's harsh words to McCain's constant battles against appropriators' "pork projects."

"I said, 'Hey, John, it's about appropriations,' " Lott said. "Appropriators are nervous about a president like John McCain.... John has always been adamantly opposed to spending. He really has a long record as a fiscal conservative in the Senate, and that created a lot of friction.... I do think some of the people who are being critical of his alleged erratic behavior have something behind that that they are worried about."

Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., who also has campaigned for McCain, said that the willingness to stick to principles -- even if it ruffles feathers -- is an asset in a presidential candidate. "I think a lot of members in the Senate have had, probably over the years, different interactions, perhaps run-ins, with John on a particular issue," Thune said. "He is someone with strong convictions who is very passionate, but I think it's always channeled in a direction of what's best for the country."

Graham was similarly dismissive of criticisms from powerful lawmakers accustomed to getting their way on spending projects. "A lot of appropriators are probably dreading the thought of John McCain being president," he said. "Appropriators are their own party. And their party is about to be over."

Talking Their Language
Veteran conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly says that McCain has a credibility problem on immigration. Because he worked with Kennedy on legislation that would have provided a pathway to citizenship for the millions of immigrants in this country illegally, McCain cannot be trusted, she declared in an interview. Despite McCain's protestations that he has listened to critics and has pledged to secure the borders first as a matter of national security, Schlafly simply doesn't buy his change of heart.

"Nobody believes it," she says of the grassroots conservatives she works with on immigration and other hot-button social issues. "They really don't believe any of these people who have been for amnesty and now talk about border security."

"I don't think he is acceptable to the majority of Republicans," she continued. "Just in the last week when I have been in a number of conservative gatherings, I am hearing people say the same things they said about Giuliani: They will not vote for him."

In an even more scathing putdown, James Dobson, one of the country's most influential evangelical leaders and the chairman of Focus on the Family, said that for the first time in his life he will not cast a vote for president if the choice is between McCain and either Clinton or Obama. "I am convinced Senator McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are," Dobson said in a statement issued on Super Tuesday.

"What a sad and melancholy decision this is for me and many other conservatives," he added. "Should Senator McCain capture the nomination, as many assume, I believe this general election will offer the worst choices for president in my lifetime."

Nevertheless, the Pew Forum's Green says, "It is entirely possible" that McCain could win a significant portion of the evangelical Protestant vote. He pointed to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center in which 59 percent of white evangelical Protestants expressed a "favorable" or "mostly favorable" view of McCain. Only 28 percent said they had a negative view.

Green said that after a contentious primary season, a GOP presidential nominee can begin to win over evangelicals by taking symbolic steps, such as visiting leaders of the Christian Right and attending prominent churches. McCain, Green said, also could spotlight positions that dovetail with those of the evangelical community, on such issues as abortion, marriage, and national security. "There is a long history of candidates doing that type of thing," he said.

Green and others suggest that McCain could also help to unify the base by choosing a running mate guaranteed to win conservative applause. Green mentioned former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is a Baptist preacher, as someone who "might reduce the volume of the criticism" because he could walk into evangelical churches and talk "their language."

Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Ga., who backs Romney, agrees. He said that it would be "tough" for McCain to unify the party and that he can't get elected without the support of conservatives. "We know about McCain-Lieberman, McCain-Kennedy, the big amnesty bill, McCain-Feingold. People see McCain for who he is: a moderate who has always sold out the party to get the headlines," Kingston said.

"He is going to have to get a good [running mate], not a senator who's been playing cutesy along with him," he said. "It has to be a solid conservative ... in order to bring Phyllis Schlafly and James Dobson with him. Somebody credible."

But Graham says, "We don't have to prove anything to anybody. What you have to do is stand up for principles that show a difference between us and our adversaries on the key issues. And that will be easy to do."

Still, as McCain tries to make his sale to the skeptics on the right, he would be well advised to "talk about their issues and not spend time targeting individual self-appointed leaders," said Scott Reed, who was the campaign manager for Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign.

How could McCain reassure the Right? Perhaps by turning the conversation to his fealty to conservative jurists, tax cuts, the "pro-life cause," and a strong national defense. Oh, and if he can regularly throw in a dollop of self-deprecating humor, which McCain is gifted at delivering, he might just quiet those who dislike his temperament.

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