Also In This Issue Related stories are available to subscribers only: The Charges, The Counterattack · Troubled History: A DeLay Timeline · Ripples On K Street: DeLay & Lobbyists Related Resources On NationalJournal.com National Journal: "Three Strikes, You're Out?" (Oct. 9, 2004) · National Journal: "Positive, Schmositive: A Texan Targets Tom DeLay" (July 28, 2004) · National Journal: "The House's Dirty Laundry" (April 10, 2004) · Rules Of The Game: "Nonprofit Incentives Mimic Outlawed Party Programs" (April 5, 2004) Additional Information On The Web House Ethics Committee Oct. 6 Letter to Rep. Tom DeLay · Ethics Committee Nov. 18 Letter to Rep. Chris Bell · Ethics Committee Memo Regarding DeLay · Ethics Committee Investigation into 2003’s Medicare Modernization Vote · The DeLay Rule Change: How the House Republican Conference Voted · Campaign Finance Information for Tom DeLay · Campaign Finance Information for DeLay’s Americans for a Republican Majority PAC

By Richard E. Cohen, National Journal
© National Journal Group Inc.
Friday, Dec. 17, 2004

The continuing legal and ethical woes of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, have produced a palpable foreboding -- plus some drawing of the knives -- among House Republicans. Even as they bask in their recent election success and prepare for possibly far-reaching domestic policy changes during President Bush's second term, House Republicans are shadowed by the many questions surrounding their majority leader. Of greatest concern, though hardly the only problem, is the continuing criminal investigation in Texas that resulted in the September indictments of three of DeLay's close associates.

Will DeLay himself be indicted? If he is indicted, could he hold on to his leadership post? How solid is his support among other House Republicans? Might fellow GOP lawmakers challenge him -- either to replace him as party leader, or possibly to thwart him from taking over if Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., vacates the top slot?

Nobody knows the answers to these and other central questions that have generated a growing buzz among Capitol Hill Republicans. Even DeLay's most devoted allies concede that they cannot be confident about how these dilemmas will unfold and whether DeLay will avoid significant fallout from the criminal inquiry. Nor can anyone -- including DeLay's most implacable enemies -- predict with assurance the immediate consequences if he is indicted or faces other sanctions.

Regardless, a cloud is hanging over Tom DeLay. Although he has been the most powerful keeper of the conservative faith during the past decade of House GOP control, he faces growing unhappiness and impatience among some of his Republican colleagues.

There are those within the House Republican ranks who think that it's already too late for DeLay, that he has lost control of events. "I believe that there will be a dramatic conclusion [for DeLay] sometime in the next two years," said the top aide to a senior House Republican. Another veteran House Republican aide, when asked what will happen to DeLay if he is indicted, replied: "There will be a firestorm, and he'll be out."

That's not a universal view, to be sure. Some insiders suggest that DeLay might emerge unscathed -- indeed, stronger than ever -- from the current investigation. "As of now, he'll get the speakership, even if he is indicted," said an experienced House GOP aide who is hardly a DeLay booster. "No one is as well positioned with members as is DeLay."

Well positioned, certainly. But lately, DeLay has also been very distracted. In the wake of the September 21 indictments in Texas, and the three unanimous admonishments of his conduct by the House Standards of Official Conduct (Ethics) Committee in the following two weeks, DeLay and his top advisers -- including a posse of lawyers -- have been consumed by crisis management.

"I see fear in his eyes," said a senior House Republican lawmaker. Others contend that the usually combative DeLay has appeared weary in recent weeks. DeLay's chief of staff, Tim Berry, has told other House GOP aides that he spends much of his time consulting with lawyers.

Even DeLay's stalwart defenders concede that he has been distracted by the problems swirling around him -- and they acknowledge that this distraction could affect legislative activity.

"Tom DeLay is a wonderful leader, with great enthusiasm and vigor, who is the architect of the conservative agenda," said Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas. But "nobody likes to have your halfback with a bad arm or knee." Asked whether he worries about the potential fallout for the agenda set by Bush and congressional Republicans, Sessions replied, "Sure.... There is uncertainty."

Responding to the same question, Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, said, "If [an indictment] happened, it might" have a legislative impact. But Brady, like other DeLay defenders, charged that the attacks against the majority leader are politically motivated, and "not about Tom DeLay."

The Past as Prologue?
Two recent historical precedents underline the peril facing DeLay. Ironically, DeLay was a leading instigator of one of those events: the coup attempted by a small group of House Republicans in July 1997 against then-Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.

In January 1997, after an investigation by the House Ethics Committee uncovered financial irregularities related to a college course that he had taught, Gingrich was reprimanded by the House, and he paid a $300,000 fine. Six months later, his colleagues were plotting a coup. The uprising began as a series of meetings among Republican rebels of the Class of 1994 who were disgruntled about Gingrich's occasional break with the conservative agenda and his increasingly autocratic style. Later, four senior members of the speaker's leadership team, including DeLay, became involved in the discussions.

"Newt had exhausted some members' patience, and he no longer got the benefit of the doubt," said Dan Meyer, who was chief of staff in Gingrich's leadership office for seven years and is now a lobbyist with the Duberstein Group. Gingrich survived the coup attempt, but it weakened him, and he was toppled less than 16 months later, shortly after the House GOP's disappointing showing in the November 1998 elections.

During the previous decade, Speaker Jim Wright, D-Texas, stepped down after he, too, alienated members of his own party with his hard-charging style. Following an investigation by the House Ethics Committee that resulted in dozens of findings against Wright, involving a book deal and other financial transactions, few Democrats rose to his defense, and the handwriting was on the wall. Wright spent a few tortured weeks trying to save his speakership, and although he was not explicitly forced out, he finally threw in the towel in May 1989.

"Jim Wright saw that he was seriously wounded, and that he couldn't lead from a position of moral strength," said former Rep. Vic Fazio, D-Calif., who chaired the House Demo-cratic Caucus and is now a partner at Clark and Weinstock, a K Street lobbying firm.

In both of those cases, a once-powerful House leader suffered a precipitous drop in his "reservoir of goodwill" with other members of his party. Some of that comes with the territory. The role of congressional leaders, by definition, requires them to urge members to take action -- usually on legislation -- that some of the rank and file might prefer to avoid. Members can grow weary of the frequent arm-twisting that comes along with the House's strict party discipline.

"The reservoir of goodwill needs to be depleted" for leaders to move their agenda, said Jeff Biggs, a former top aide to Speaker Tom Foley, D-Wash., and current director of the congressional fellows program of the American Political Science Association. "Part of a leader's job is to marshal support for something that members might not necessarily like."

Both Wright and Gingrich were on the front line, especially because they each held the top House job at a time when the opposite party controlled the White House, thus raising each speaker's profile as the leader of the opposition. They -- and the perils that ultimately doomed them -- became well known around the country.

As the No. 2 leader in the House, DeLay has some cover. His challenge now is to make sure that he doesn't become "the story" outside the Beltway, a situation that could create headaches for his colleagues when they return to their districts.

"Tom and his staff need to worry about the possibility that members will be hearing about his problems when they are at home," Meyer said. "He has to be aggressive in his attack, with a strategy that works. That can be difficult to do." Biggs noted, "When members feel the heat back home, they feel the need to protect the link to their constituents."

In the short term, at least, DeLay's aggressive self-defense has met with some success. During this fall's election campaigns, various House Democratic candidates sought to get political mileage out of DeLay's woes by linking their Republican opponents to the majority leader. Some Democrats demanded that Republicans return campaign contributions from DeLay; others criticized the House's failure to demand an expanded ethics investigation.

DeLay, however, deliberately reduced his public appearances across the nation, limiting the Democrats' ability to make their charges stick. And the election results showed that he apparently has not yet become an albatross for his party.

"All the slings and arrows of the ethics charges were washed away by the election results," a source close to DeLay said. "Members are grateful for his support to the party and his performance as majority leader in moving the agenda." The ally added, "DeLay won't stand still. He will outmaneuver the critics."

For their part, House Democrats recently have toned down their drumbeat against the majority leader. "We have tried to demonize DeLay, but the reality is that the Republicans are savvy in operating behind the scenes," said a House Democratic aide. "We need to let DeLay be DeLay, and we should worry about our activities as the opposition party in focusing on everything that the Republicans do."

Preparing for the Apocalypse
Although DeLay's defenders contend that he is in no jeopardy, they have moved on a number of fronts to prepare for a possible worst-case scenario. Several of their actions have been clandestine, and have come with little warning to other House Republicans.

According to well-placed GOP sources, even Hastert appeared to have been blindsided -- and at least initially unhappy -- about DeLay's stealth maneuver in mid-November to rewrite the House Republican Conference rule that had required a party leader to automatically step aside from his post if indicted for a felony with the potential of at least two years' imprisonment. The new version of the rule would require the leadership-controlled House GOP Steering Committee to review and recommend action within 30 legislative days after any leader or committee chairman is indicted on a felony charge.

Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-Texas, initiated what has become known as the "DeLay Rule" in response to fears of possible action against the majority leader by Ronnie Earle, the Democratic district attorney conducting the ongoing investigation in Texas. "We cannot allow political operatives to disrupt, intimidate, or otherwise impede the business of the House of Representatives," Bonilla said. "[This] rule change will lessen the possibility of political exploitations that disrupt our House leadership."

Although they did not force a roll-call vote on the rules change at the November 17 closed-door meeting of the House Republican Conference, many members clearly found the proposal distasteful, not least because it appears to further strengthen the control of GOP leaders.

Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., and other opponents said that between 30 and 40 Republicans opposed the change during the voice vote. The rules change is "a step in the wrong direction" from the standard that Republicans set when they captured the House majority a decade ago, Shays said. The Daily DeLay Weblog, maintained by the Public Campaign Action Fund, a liberal group, has identified 23 House GOP members who have asserted that they opposed the new rule.

The effects of the rules change will depend on several factors, starting with whether DeLay is indicted and, if so, on what grounds. DeLay's allies have sought to make the case that because Earle is "playing politics," as Sessions said, any indictment brought against DeLay by the Austin grand jury would be automatically discredited. In such a case, DeLay -- protected by the House GOP rules -- could seek to maintain a semblance of business as usual.

But some GOP sources have dismissed that possibility as wishful thinking. They contend that DeLay and his allies made what one veteran aide termed "colossal" misjudgments by pressing the issue last month. Insisting on anonymity -- in part, because of the continuing fear of crossing DeLay -- these sources contend that DeLay has now exhausted his one "vote of confidence" from members. As another well-placed aide said, "DeLay has used his last arrow."

A telltale sign that the DeLay team is preparing for a sustained public-relations battle came when his communications director, Stuart Roy, announced this month that he will be departing Capitol Hill to join the Washington office of the DCI Group, a corporate public-affairs firm with a grassroots focus. In an interview, Roy said that he expects to remain "heavily involved in DeLay's political operations," though final details have not been settled.

Filling a Void
Because politics abhors a vacuum, possible peril for one high-ranking congressional figure creates potential opportunities for others. Several House Republicans have quietly begun exploring possible bids to challenge or succeed DeLay, depending on what happens, although they publicly are keeping their intentions under wraps.

Others with an interest in major legislation have begun to calculate the impact -- pro or con -- of a DeLay ouster. For example, some suggest that the weakening or the departure of the GOP's most polarizing leader could improve the prospects for building the trust required to secure a bipartisan deal on Social Security reform.

If DeLay is indicted, a key factor in determining his fate would be the willingness of other House Republicans to take him on or to offer themselves as possible successors. Depending on the timing and on other circumstances, one of DeLay's allies could even step in, with DeLay's blessing.

The continuing speculation over Hastert's possible retirement is another part of the puzzle. This summer, the speaker told an interviewer that he might be interested in serving as an ambassador at some point. If Hastert steps down and DeLay seeks to become speaker, a House GOP lawmaker said, "he can't do it," because of widespread reservations among members.

In recent interviews, several House Republican sources -- both members and staffers -- speculated that three members head the parade of contenders for the top leadership slots. All three have conservative voting records and a somewhat softer edge than DeLay; each also holds a secure GOP seat, but none is from the South or West. In alphabetical order, they are:

* Majority Whip Roy Blunt, R-Mo. First elected to the House in 1996, after serving two terms as Missouri's secretary of state, Blunt rose quickly within the leadership, with DeLay's direct assistance. DeLay tapped Blunt to succeed him as chief deputy majority whip in late 1998, and Blunt won the whip's job two years ago without opposition. The 54-year-old Blunt has taken a deliberately softer approach as whip, rather than inspiring the fear that DeLay did during his eight years as "The Hammer" in that post. Many Republicans contend that a chill has developed between the two men, though both deny it. Blunt has taken the lead on bipartisan legislation to extend tax breaks for faith-based initiatives.

* Education and the Workforce Committee Chairman John Boehner, R-Ohio. After he was elected in 1990, Boehner, now 55, helped to create the freshman House Republicans' "Gang of Seven," who assailed the majority Democrats' heavy-handed management of the House. An early ally of Gingrich, Boehner became the House Republican Conference chairman after the party won control in 1994. But his less confrontational approach led to internal disagreements, and Boehner became an ancillary victim of Gingrich's exile, when -- with DeLay's support -- Rep. J.C. Watts, R-Okla., ousted him as conference chairman in 1998. Since then, Boehner has voiced interest in returning to a leadership post. He shepherded enactment of the 2002 No Child Left Behind Act, and continuing hostility to that law from a few dozen conservative opponents, including DeLay, could form a core of opposition to Boehner's future leadership ambitions.

* National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds, R-N.Y. The most-junior of the three, Reynolds, 54, first won election to the House in 1998, but he has quickly moved up through the ranks. A veteran of the New York Assembly, where he was minority leader, the Buffalo-area lawmaker has the style and savvy of an urban pol, although his Rules Committee membership has afforded him little opportunity to work on policy details. He won praise from New York Democrats for working to secure post-9/11 assistance funds. Reynolds's frequent one-on-one chats with Hastert suggest that they have developed a professional camaraderie. Of the three potential aspirants, Reynolds may have the closest relationship with DeLay and his House allies.

Because of their positions, Blunt and Reynolds already enjoy well-organized networks of supportive members who could be helpful if either seeks to move up. But Boehner has also begun to develop his own team to prepare for a possible leadership bid, according to informed sources.

"Boehner's high council [from his earlier leadership battles] never really disbanded," said a former House leadership aide who has joined the K Street network of Republican operatives. Another former staffer who still monitors internal House GOP politics said, "They meet regularly to chat about all kinds of" matters, including an eventual run by Boehner for the top spot.

Asked to confirm the report, a Boehner spokesman replied: "Boehner is very focused on his committee chairmanship. He supports our leadership team, he's focused on his chairmanship, and he's ready for Republicans to hit the ground running in 2005."

Damaging Divisions?
Apart from any leadership intrigue, House Republicans will have plenty to keep them busy when the 109th Congress convenes on January 4. A new -- and major -- question is whether internal House GOP divisions, revealed in their debate over the "DeLay Rule" on indictments, and also in their bitter split on intelligence reform legislation, will affect Bush's ambitious agenda.

Some House Republicans assert that everything's fine. "These were not large or lasting disagreements," Brady said. "Members are fired up about doing exciting things in the new Congress."

Still, the debate over the intelligence bill could signal a weakening of the House GOP leadership's vaunted control over the rank and file. Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn., said that the support of many GOP lawmakers for the renegade chairmen who initially opposed the intelligence bill showed Bush and his allies, "You don't have to be 100 percent successful."

A senior House GOP aide voiced concern that the recent "turmoil" stems from DeLay's deep-seated problems. "The rules change roiled the waters, plus DeLay did nothing to discourage opposition on the 9/11 bill," the aide said. "There is concern among many members about how DeLay has been acting. He has not been chastened at all."

Depending on one's perspective, DeLay's reservoir of goodwill among his colleagues may be half full, or it may be half empty. Now, his future might depend on outside forces beyond his control. That surely is an unnerving position for the famously hands-on leader.

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