Most consistently, Santorum carried evangelical Christians in all six of those states, as well as in Arizona, where Romney otherwise dominated. Earlier, of course, Santorum also won evangelicals in the Iowa caucuses. The limit confronting Santorum is that he has not carried more than 31 percent of voters who do not identify as evangelicals in any state.
As long as these patterns hold, Romney would maintain a clear edge in states, many of them along the coasts, where evangelicals will likely comprise only about a third or the vote or less (and affluent, better-educated voters also loom larger), including Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, New Jersey and California.
Santorum stands as a clear favorite in interior states where evangelicals will likely cast at least half of the GOP ballots (and the overall electorate will tilt more blue collar), including Missouri (whose caucuses began Saturday), Louisiana, Texas, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and probably North Carolina and Indiana (where no recent exit polls are available).
The very few true battleground states probably will be those where evangelicals will likely represent about 40 to 45 percent of the vote, as they did in closely contested Michigan and Ohio. That relatively short list ranges from Wisconsin and Illinois (at the lower end, which inclines them more toward Romney) to Oregon and Nebraska. In states such as these, another key variable will be whether the non-evangelical vote tilts upscale (which would help Romney) or downscale (which would benefit Santorum).
Here in Illinois, where evangelicals cast 41 percent of the 2008 GOP primary ballots, and college graduates 52 percent, all signs suggest the basic patterns of support are holding. That would leave Romney as a favorite here, though not one safely beyond the reach of Santorum, who is clearly touching a chord with the party’s populist wing.
On Friday night, for instance, one of the largest and most enthusiastic crowds of the campaign greeted Santorum when he arrived at the Christian Liberty Academy, a conservative religious school in Arlington Heights, about an hour northwest of Chicago. Even before Santorum arrived, the audience pulsed with enthusiastic energy for speakers like Calvin Lindstrom, the pastor at the school’s affiliated church, who bemoaned “with disgrace the sin that has resulted in the murder of 50 million unborn children in just the past generation” and exhorted his listeners to pray “in the name of King Jesus.”
Once Santorum took the stage before an enormous American flag, the crowd repeatedly interrupted him with standing ovations and calls of “liberty” and “amen.” Almost as one, the audience shouted out the word “Creator” when Santorum dramatically paused and allowed them to fill the silence after he started reciting the section from the Declaration of Independence that reads “all men are created equal and endowed by their ...”
Even when two young men stood up in the bleachers to loudly chant slogans at Santorum before embracing for an ardent kiss, the impassioned interruption seemed more to energize than unnerve the crowd—which lustily chanted “USA, USA” as security led the protesters away. After the speech, the audience filed out into the night with a palpable buzz of excitement, many of them carrying Santorum placards and lining up to purchase buttons and bumper stickers.
Compared to the raucous reception Santorum ignited on Friday night—and Saturday afternoon in Effingham—Mitt Romney’s rally later Saturday in Collinsville carried all the voltage of an annual shareholder’s meeting. In this small Southern Illinois community, a much smaller crowd and older crowd than in Effingham sat sedately on chairs arrayed in a theater-in-the-round setting while Romney delivered a very short speech on energy and the economy and took a few admiring questions.
Yet after the speech, several of those attending expressed strong commitments to Romney, almost always centered on his prior experience in business or the belief that he represents the best chance to beat Obama. “We need a business leader and someone who really understands the economy,” said Tom McRae, a Madison County Board member.
McRae was wearing the sort of natty tan suit that is rarely seen at a Santorum rally. In both Effingham and Arlington Heights, Santorum’s crowd was more likely to sport a baseball cap -- or, for that matter, to be pushing a baby stroller.
Unless significantly more strollers and baseball caps turn up at Romney rallies — or Santorum attracts more suits — the longest and most closely fought Republican nomination race since 1976 will grind on with the former Massachusetts governor likely strong enough to retain his lead, but too weak to eliminate his principal rival.
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