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The Trail: 2012 Presidential News from the Field / Campaign 2012

Study: New Latino Registrations Could Help Determine Battleground States

August 13, 2012

A new study suggests that a rise in voter registrations among Latinos could help swing the presidential race in nine battleground states.

The study, conducted by Latino Decisions, a  nonpartisan advocacy group, relies on state registration counts, Census data and information compiled by two analysts.

For instance, the study finds that in three key states with large Latino populations, the number of those registered to vote has increased. In Colorado, where Latinos represent 12.1 percent of registered voters, the number of registrations jumped 2.9 percent since 2008. In Nevada, that figure was 2.3 percent and in Florida it was a one-percent increase.

 

In each of those states, if Latino voter turnout decreased from 2008 levels, President Obama could lose his lead to Mitt Romney, according to the study.

In Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa, the number of Latinos registered to vote is smaller, but all three states have seen an immigration influx in the past several years and a corresponding rise in the number of registrations.

Latinos historically support Democrats in large numbers. In 2008, Obama won 67 percent of the Latino vote.

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