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Poll: Ron Paul Emerges as Front-Runner in Iowa Poll: Ron Paul Emerges as Front-Runner in Iowa Poll: Ron Paul Emerges as Front-Runner in Iowa Poll: Ron Paul Emerges as...

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The Trail: 2012 Presidential News from the Field / CAMPAIGN 2012

Poll: Ron Paul Emerges as Front-Runner in Iowa

Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, speaks during a Republican presidential debate on Oct. 18.(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

photo of Steven Shepard
November 15, 2011

From National Journal:

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A second poll in as many days shows a wide-open race in Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses, as a majority of likely caucusgoers say they could be convinced to support a candidate other than their top choice.

The new poll, conducted for Bloomberg News by Selzer & Co., the respected West Des Moines pollster that also conducts surveys for the Des Moines Register, shows businessman Herman Cain leading the pack, with 20 percent. But he is statistically tied with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, with 19 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, with 18 percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with 17 percent.


"In Iowa, it's long been a two-person race between Romney and someone else," Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll, told Bloomberg News. "It is now a four-person race between Romney and three someone elses."

Texas Gov. Rick Perry was fifth, with 7 percent, trailed by Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who won the Ames straw poll in August, who was at 5 percent. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who has visited all of the state's 99 counties, was at just 3 percent.

The race remains fluid: 10 percent of likely caucusgoers are undecided, and 60 percent say they could still be persuaded to switch to another candidate.

The poll was conducted Nov. 10-12, surveying 503 likely caucusgoers. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent.

On Monday, National Journal obtained the results of a survey conducted by a Republican pollster that showed Cain and Gingrich leading the field in the Hawkeye State.

WATCH Paul gets placed by the ice machine at the latest presidential debate:

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