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How Romney Came Back in Florida How Romney Came Back in Florida

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campaign 2012

How Romney Came Back in Florida

Mitt Romney expanded his following among key center-hugging groups while narrowing rival Newt Gingrich's appeal among populist Republican voters.

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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, speaks to supporters at his Florida primary primary night rally in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)  

Mitt Romney’s blowout win in Florida on Tuesday provided almost a mirror image of the results just 10 days ago in South Carolina, a head-spinning reversal that underscored the continuing turbulence of the most volatile Republican presidential race since 1940.

In Florida, Romney consolidated and widened his advantage among the groups that have consistently leaned toward him, while narrowing rival Newt Gingrich’s edge among the constituencies at the core of his competing coalition. That was exactly what Gingrich did to Romney in South Carolina.

 

(PICTURES: 4 Factors That Helped Romney Win)

Romney’s rout in Florida highlighted his financial and organizational advantages, and may have left some lasting scars on the former speaker’s image. The next month of contests run mostly through states that favor Romney; Gingrich isn’t a clear favorite to win another state until Super Tuesday on March 6. But the continued resistance to Romney among the party’s most conservative elements evident in the exit poll suggests that the race, which has stubbornly resisted order for over a year, may have more twists in store before anyone can claim the nomination.

For now, Florida gave Romney a sweeping victory that restored him as the clear front-runner. Throughout the first primaries, Romney has consistently shown the most strength among the GOP’s upscale, economy-focused, and more secular managerial wing. He posted big numbers among all of those groups in Florida on Tuesday night, according to the exit poll published on CNN.com.

 

Romney carried voters with at least a four-year college degree over Gingrich by 47 percent to 29 percent; won over three-fifths of voters earning over $200,000 annually; swept voters earning between $100,000 and $200,000 by 16 percentage points; and beat Gingrich among self-identified moderates and liberals by about 3-to-1. He routed Gingrich by 2-to-1 among voters who don’t identify as evangelical Christians, and carried nearly three-fifths of those who described themselves as neutral toward the tea party movement. On all those fronts, the center of the party closed ranks behind Romney.

Adding to Romney’s advantage is the fact that those groups are more prevalent in Florida than in South Carolina. Most important, in South Carolina, almost two-thirds of primary voters identified as evangelical Christians; in Florida fully three-fifths did not. Less dramatically, Florida’s electorate was also slightly more affluent and well-educated than South Carolina’s.

Romney didn’t run as well in Florida among the groups that make up the GOP’s competing populist wing. But, compared to South Carolina, he held down Gingrich’s advantage among all of them and he beat him with some of them.

For instance, Romney carried voters without a college education by 45 percent to Gingrich’s 34 percent, after those voters provided Gingrich a crushing 18-percentage-point edge in South Carolina. In Florida, Romney carried voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 and those earning less than $50,000, after struggling with each of those groups in both Iowa and South Carolina.

 

Most strikingly, Romney battled Gingrich to a near draw among evangelical Christians, carrying 35 percent to Gingrich’s 38 percent. That actually wasn’t much more than the 31 percent among Florida evangelicals that Romney carried in 2008 -- a reminder that his problem with born-again Christians is much more intense in Deep South states like South Carolina than it is elsewhere. (Evangelical Christians preferred Gingrich over Romney by 2-to-1 in South Carolina.)

At the heart of Romney’s success with all of these groups was his recapture of the mantle of electability that he had surrendered in the Palmetto State. In South Carolina, after Gingrich’s searing performances in two debates, the 45 percent of voters who said their top priority was a candidate who could beat President Obama preferred the former speaker by 14 percentage points. In Florida, after Romney ran rings around Gingrich in two debates, the 46 percent of voters who said electability was their top concern preferred the former Massachusetts governor by 26 percentage points.

The one silver lining for Romney in South Carolina last weekend was that after the most difficult week of his campaign, he still won pluralities of moderates, non-evangelicals and wealthy voters. That suggested an opportunity for him to recover in a state that tilted more toward those voters, as Florida does.

The flip side was true for Gingrich on Tuesday night. Amid his pasting, he still held that narrow plurality among evangelicals, maintained a double-digit, 43-30 percent edge among voters who described themselves as very conservative, and amassed a comparable 45-33 percent among those who consider themselves strong tea party supporters. Especially given Romney’s overwhelming financial advantage in Florida, that suggests a foundation that hasn’t completely cracked -- one that could provide Gingrich more opportunity when the calendar turns back toward Southern and Heartland states in March.

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