“Colorado and Nevada [are] no walks in the park, nor is Iowa. But the whole ball game comes down to Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.”
“Florida and Virginia have always been slightly on the Republican side of the 270 electoral line. Romney should also have some greater appeal in New Hampshire from his time in Massachusetts.”
“Nevada really got nailed by the recession, and whoever is left in the state won’t vote Democrat.”
“Colorado, because Romney’s Utah background makes him more appealing to Western conservatives. Wisconsin, because of the Ryan pick and the work that was done during the Scott Walker recall.”
“Ohio and Florida are always tough for Dems. If he wins either one, the party starts in earnest in Chicago.”
“Obama made a huge problem for himself in Virginia when the White House failed to intervene in the governor’s race in 2011.”
“All of them unfortunately for Obama will be harder.”
Which three of these states that President Obama carried in 2008 will be the hardest for him to hold in 2012?
Republicans (179 votes)
Florida: 63%
Virginia: 54%
Ohio: 39%
Iowa: 36%
New Hampshire: 33%
Wisconsin: 30%
Nevada: 21%
Colorado: 20%
Pennsylvania: 5%
“Floridians are no fans of Obamacare: High foreclosures, high unemployment. Romney has very effective surrogates in [Sen. Marco] Rubio and Jeb Bush who can work the state for him.”
“The South is done with Obama; his drop-off among whites region-wide is catastrophic. In New Hampshire, the antigovernment backlash continues, plus Mitt lives there now.”
“GOP has been consistently winning Florida, even with a flurry of weak candidates.”
“If Ohio doesn’t go [Republican], Obama doesn’t go. Beyond that, Florida and Virginia have made more strides in the past four years, developing their infrastructure and campaign apparatus.”
“Ryan will provide boost in Wisconsin, Ohio’s economic stagnation is a major issue, and, in Florida, I am not seeing as yet the Democratic intensity match the Republican side.”
“Horrible economy in Florida, Ryan carries Wisconsin, and New Hampshire loves Mitt.”
“Population growth in Northern Virginia really gives Obama a cushion. Romney has to win the exurbs there in big margins.”
“The magic is gone in Iowa. Incumbent presidents don’t spend three full days in any state where internal polls show they’re winning.”
“Iowans hate debt. They learned from the farm crisis of the 1980s. They see the national debt as a big problem.”
“Iowa has seen a huge swing to Republicans in voter registration.”
“ ‘Mediscare’ won’t bail out Obama in Florida. Colorado 2008is a glorious memory but long gone.”
“Buckeyes are easygoing, nice people who are willing to give someone a chance—but only once.”
“Obama has alienated himself from coal voters. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia won’t forget that at the polls.”
“Mediscare will fail; Florida will fall.”
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Democratic Convention Insiders Jill Alper, Nick Ammann, John Anzalone, Ryan Banfill, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, James Blanchard, Rick Boylan, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coehlo, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daley, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Tom Daschle, Howard Dean, Scott Defife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Michael Dino, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Damien Filer, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, Alma Gonzalez, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Megan Hannigan, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery, Danny Homan, Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, Steve Jarding, Jonathan Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Susan Kennedy, Lisa Kountoupes, Dawn Laguens, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Beth Matuga, Susan McCue, Gerry McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, Moses Mercado, J. Todd Metcalf, Michael Monroe, Erick Mullen, Steve Murphy, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, John Ost, Jeffrey Peck, Joe Perry, LeeAnn Petersen, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Tim Punke, Jack Quinn, Robert Raben, Oscar Ramirez, Larry Rasky, Beth Rawlins, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Robin Rorapaugh, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ron Sachs, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Dane Strother, Scott Surovell, Katrina Swett, David Thomas, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Steve Vancore, George E. Wallace, Screven Watson, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolfe, John Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby
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