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Conventions 2012 / CONVENTION INSIDERS POLL

Convention Insiders Poll

August 23, 2012

In the future, how many days do you think political conventions should last?

Democrats (104 votes)

Four: 10%
Three: 49%
Two: 27%
One: 8%
Zero: 7%

 

 

Four

“I don’t think it is too much to ask the American people to tune in for a couple nights every four years to help determine their future.”

Three

“There’s only one night that matters. Shouldn’t take so long to get to the point.”

“Three days with required network coverage each evening, given the networks are using ‘our’ airwaves.”

“Three nights are enough; the trick will be to convince any major city to host it under those circumstances, especially if the Charlotte organizers are consulted.”

“Unions have better things to do than to pay for Dem parties.”

Two

“A gathering without all of the expenses of recreating halls and the other associated costs. The speeches by the principals are important. They can be done in a variety of places.”

“Two days for a few important speeches, platform passage, and formal nomination, and that’s it. The rest is superficial networking that has nothing to do with the election.”

“Easier to control the message coming from the convention with a shortened time frame. Also easier to get press attention with a smaller window.”

One

“Nomination by acclamation; two speeches and it is over.”

Zero

“An outdated, irrelevant institution. Save the money, the lousy hotel rooms, the placards, the roll calls.”

 

 

In the future, how many days do you think political conventions should last?

Republicans (179 votes)

Four: 24%
Three: 51%
Two: 20%
One: 2%
Zero: 4%

 

Four

“It’s all about drawing out media coverage, and, like with the Olympics, the coverage will last as long as the event does.”

“A word in defense of conventions: They are still the only time the parties in their entirety get together.”

“How else could we possibly fit in all the parties?”

Three

“Less than that, and it’s not worth the traveling expense for the thousands of volunteers and guests.”

“With social media as sophisticated as it is, conventions should be limited to three days to make it worthy of travel and coverage.”

“Great stories have a beginning, a middle, and an end.”

“Conventions are just to get everyone together for a ritual fist bump and highlighting new stars. Three days is plenty.”

Two

“I think both parties tend to lose focus after two days at things like these. Keep the conventions on high notes and not minutiae!”

“The public’s attention span is contracting.”

“They are just one big, expensive, time-consuming party. One day to hear VP nominee. One day to hear nominee speak. Then let us go home and do something constructive.”

One

“Huge waste of party resources—time, manpower, money—that would be better spent on grassroots support for turnout in November.”

Zero

“Conventions are useless wastes of money which could be better spent on election activity and paid media.”

 

 

Which three of these states that President Obama carried in 2008 will be the hardest for him to hold in 2012?

Democrats (104 votes)

Florida: 58%
Virginia: 55%
Iowa: 39%
Ohio: 38%
Wisconsin: 36%
Colorado: 32%
Nevada: 19%
New Hampshire: 16%
Pennsylvania: 5%

 

“Florida is a 50-50 state, but it lacks Democratic infrastructure and statewide Dem leadership. Let’s see how much Dems can make hay of the Ryan budget.”

“What with all the hoops the Republicans are placing in the way of legitimate Democratic voters in Florida, it looks like 2000 all over again.”

“Ryan will make Wisconsin tougher, but Florida is key to both candidacies. Romney will work to win his latest ‘home state’ [of New Hampshire].”

“Ryan pick only marginally affects race in Wisconsin, but failed recall is an albatross. Florida back on table thanks to ‘Mediscare’ ticket, but still hard.”

“Nevada is tough due to the huge unemployment and foreclosure rate, as well as the number of Mormons.”

“Colorado and Nevada [are] no walks in the park, nor is Iowa. But the whole ball game comes down to Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.”

“Florida and Virginia have always been slightly on the Republican side of the 270 electoral line. Romney should also have some greater appeal in New Hampshire from his time in Massachusetts.”

“Nevada really got nailed by the recession, and whoever is left in the state won’t vote Democrat.”

“Colorado, because Romney’s Utah background makes him more appealing to Western conservatives. Wisconsin, because of the Ryan pick and the work that was done during the Scott Walker recall.”

“Ohio and Florida are always tough for Dems. If he wins either one, the party starts in earnest in Chicago.”

“Obama made a huge problem for himself in Virginia when the White House failed to intervene in the governor’s race in 2011.”

“All of them unfortunately for Obama will be harder.”

 

 

Which three of these states that President Obama carried in 2008 will be the hardest for him to hold in 2012?

Republicans (179 votes)

Florida: 63%
Virginia: 54%
Ohio: 39%
Iowa: 36%
New Hampshire: 33%
Wisconsin: 30%
Nevada: 21%
Colorado: 20%
Pennsylvania: 5%

 

“Floridians are no fans of Obamacare: High foreclosures, high unemployment. Romney has very effective surrogates in [Sen. Marco] Rubio and Jeb Bush who can work the state for him.”

“The South is done with Obama; his drop-off among whites region-wide is catastrophic. In New Hampshire, the antigovernment backlash continues, plus Mitt lives there now.”

“GOP has been consistently winning Florida, even with a flurry of weak candidates.”

“If Ohio doesn’t go [Republican], Obama doesn’t go. Beyond that, Florida and Virginia have made more strides in the past four years, developing their infrastructure and campaign apparatus.”

“Ryan will provide boost in Wisconsin, Ohio’s economic stagnation is a major issue, and, in Florida, I am not seeing as yet the Democratic intensity match the Republican side.”

“Horrible economy in Florida, Ryan carries Wisconsin, and New Hampshire loves Mitt.”

“Population growth in Northern Virginia really gives Obama a cushion. Romney has to win the exurbs there in big margins.”

“The magic is gone in Iowa. Incumbent presidents don’t spend three full days in any state where internal polls show they’re winning.”

“Iowans hate debt. They learned from the farm crisis of the 1980s. They see the national debt as a big problem.”

“Iowa has seen a huge swing to Republicans in voter registration.”

“ ‘Mediscare’ won’t bail out Obama in Florida. Colorado 2008is a glorious memory but long gone.”

“Buckeyes are easygoing, nice people who are willing to give someone a chance—but only once.”

“Obama has alienated himself from coal voters. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia won’t forget that at the polls.”

“Mediscare will fail; Florida will fall.”

____________

Democratic Convention Insiders Jill Alper, Nick Ammann, John Anzalone, Ryan Banfill, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, James Blanchard, Rick Boylan, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coehlo, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daley, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Tom Daschle, Howard Dean, Scott Defife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Michael Dino, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Damien Filer, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, Alma Gonzalez, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Megan Hannigan, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery, Danny Homan, Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, Steve Jarding, Jonathan Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Susan Kennedy, Lisa Kountoupes, Dawn Laguens, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Beth Matuga, Susan McCue, Gerry McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, Moses Mercado, J. Todd Metcalf, Michael Monroe, Erick Mullen, Steve Murphy, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, John Ost, Jeffrey Peck, Joe Perry, LeeAnn Petersen, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Tim Punke, Jack Quinn, Robert Raben, Oscar Ramirez, Larry Rasky, Beth Rawlins, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Robin Rorapaugh, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ron Sachs, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Dane Strother, Scott Surovell, Katrina Swett, David Thomas, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Steve Vancore, George E. Wallace, Screven Watson, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolfe, John Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby

GOP Convention Insiders Kevin Abbott, Chad Airhart, Tim Albrecht, Ray Allen, Peter Angerhofer, Charlie Arlinghaus, Brian Ballard, Slater Bayliss, Brad Blais, Grant Bosse, Michael Bousselot, Sally Bradshaw, Kevin Brady, Jamie Burnett, Jeb Bush Jr., Bertica Cabrera, James Centers, Amelia Chasse, Alan Cobb, Tom Cole, Len Collins, Paul Collins, Bradford E. Cook, Lynne Cottrell, Peter Cownie, Renee Dabbs, Mikel Derby, Jose Diaz, Nelson Diaz, Janel Domenico, Brett Doster, Charlie Dudley, Brian Dumas, John Dunagan, Ed Dupont, Tom Feeney, Brenna Findley, Jay Flanders, Ken Flechler, Jim Foley, Christian Fong, Jose Fuentes, Dave Funk, Randall Gerard, Adam Goodman, Adam Gregg, Sandy Greiner, Steve Grubbs, Chris Hagenow, Matt Hagerty, Erin Hass, Rich Heffley, Erik Helland, Darrell Henry, Ann Herberger, Mark Hillman, Matt Hinch, Doug Hoelscher, Jennifer Horn, Mark Hudson, Caleb Hunter, Patrick Hynes, Todd Inman, David Jamison, Eric Johansen, Christina Johnson, David Johnson, Periklis Karoutas, Matthew Keelen, Jake Ketzner, Rich Killion, Gary Kirke, Walt Klein, Matt Knoedler, Gary Lambert, Ladonna Y. Lee, Frederick Leonhardt, Corey Lewandowski, Carlos M. Lopez-Cantera, Jim MacEachern, Kerry Marsh, Alberto E. Martinez, Don McDowell, Shannon McGinley, Christopher McGowan, Will McKinley, Kathy Mears, Dan Meyer, Betsy Miller, Paul Mitchell, Ana Navarro, Steve Northrup, Roy Palmer, Ed J. Pozzuoli, Christopher Rants, Marc Reichelderfer, Todd Reid, Dave Rexrode Jim Rimes, Craig Robinson, Monica Rodriguez, Richard Rogers, Marc A. Ross, Sarah Rumpf, Nick Ryan, John Ryder, Renee Schulte, Pete Silva, Suzan Stewart, Ted Stopulos, Cameron Sutton, John Tate, Jo Thoburn, Cory Tilley, Joe Wall, Ed Wallace, Peter Week, Susan Wiles, Shari Williams, Eric Woolson, Will Wrobleski, Grant Young

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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