Election Analysis

ELECTION ANALYSIS October 28, 2012

October Surprises Hit Up And Down The Ballot

By Reid Wilson

The October Surprise has a long, storied and mostly exaggerated history. Richard Nixon's White House announcing a potential peace deal in Vietnam just two weeks before the 1972 election wasn't the reason he won by 20 points. Sen. John Kerry blamed his 2004 loss on a video tape released by Osama bin Laden days before the election, but few others do. A decades-old drunken driving arrest revealed the week before the 2000 election probably didn't cost George W. Bush many votes. Read more »

ELECTION ANALYSIS October 22, 2012

Obama, Romney: No Major Differences in Foreign-Policy Debate

By Michael Hirsh

More than anything else, Mitt Romney needed to reassure Americans in the final presidential debate on Monday night that he was not a reckless warmonger. At that the Republican nominee largely succeeded, mentioning his desire for “peace” so many times that he might have been the late George McGovern. Read more »

CAMPAIGN 2012 October 18, 2012

It’s Down to Just 8 States for Obama and Romney

By George E. Condon Jr.

President Obama and Mitt Romney will feel right at home when they go to Florida for their final debate on Monday. Unlike most of the country, it's a place where both candidates have spent a lot of time. Read more »

ELECTION 2012 October 16, 2012

Obama Scores the Most Debate Points, but Verdict Uncertain

By Ron Fournier

Bottom line: Obama and Romney scored points while turning off independent voters with their point-scoring. Democratic and Republican partisans will find reason to celebrate the debate, but it likely did nothing to reshape the closely fought race. Read more »

ELECTION ANALYSIS October 16, 2012

4 or 5 Leadership Traits to Watch for in Debate

By Ron Fournier

A presidential debate is a job interview. And voters look for certain traits in people applying to be president. In Tuesday night’s debate between President Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, look for four attributes of successful leadership —five if you count empathy. Read more »

ELECTION ANALYSIS October 12, 2012

Five Takeaways From Biden-Ryan Debate

By Ronald Brownstein

The biggest message about Thursday night’s encounter between Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan may be that debates work better when all the participants show up. Strong performances from Biden, Ryan, and moderator Martha Raddatz produced one of the most engaging, enlightening, and entertaining debates of recent memory, one marked by dramatic contrasts in priorities, ideology, and personal style. The debate was intriguing in many ways; here are five of the most important. Read more »

ELECTION ANALYSIS October 4, 2012

5 Reasons Why It’s Too Early to Write Off Obama

By Ron Fournier

It seems only yesterday that convention wisdom had Mitt Romney buried and President Obama reelected. Maybe because it was only yesterday, and now the chatter class is likely to lurch to another false extreme. Read more »

CAMPAIGN 2012 October 3, 2012

Obama, Romney Talk Lots on Taxes, Say Little

By Nancy Cook

Despite the many words uttered Wednesday night about taxes, neither President Obama nor Republican candidate Mitt Romney unveiled any new policy specifics during the first presidential debate. Read more »

ELECTION 2012 October 3, 2012

Incumbent Debate Curse: Barack Obama Falls to Mitt Romney

By Ron Fournier

Call it the curse of incumbency. Like many of his predecessors, President Obama fell victim Wednesday night to high expectations, a short fuse, and a hungry challenger. Read more »