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Democratic Strategist: Demographics Work Against Romney in Some Battlegrounds Democratic Strategist: Demographics Work Against Romney in Some Battle...

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Conventions 2012

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Democratic Strategist: Demographics Work Against Romney in Some Battlegrounds

Pollster expects gay marriage, auto bailout to energize Obama voters in key states.

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, CEO of the Mellman Group, boasts a roster of high-profile clients including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md. He has worked on the campaigns of 18 senators, eight governors, and 24 members of Congress. Mellman recently sat down with National Journal to share his thoughts about the state of play in this year's battleground states.

NJ There was a dramatic expansion of the map in 2008. Was it a fluke, or are those changes more permanent?

 

Mellman The map always gets bigger when the overall national margin gets bigger. People don’t seem to realize, but the national vote is linked to the votes in the states. So if you’re going to win by 10 points, you’re going to have a bigger map than if you win by one point. More states will be in play. What has happened is that there is a different set of states in play. Democrats have established a stronger advantage in a number of states because of demographic changes.

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